[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 24 10:30:41 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 173/127


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Nov             25 Nov             26 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            150/105            140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 23 November. 
The largest flare was a C3.6 at 1053UT from active region 2217 
(S19E68). Expect C-class flares with a possible M-class flare 
and slight chance for an X class flare over the next three days. 
The solar wind ranged between 350 to 450 over the last 24 hours. 
Expect the solar wind to remain in this range over the next 24 
hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
varied between +6/-7 nT over the last 24 hours. LASCO C2 imagery 
showed a CME off the east limb first observed at 23/1636UT, not 
Earthward directed.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22233232
      Cocos Island         6   12222221
      Darwin               9   22233222
      Townsville           9   22233132
      Learmonth            8   21233222
      Alice Springs        9   22233222
      Norfolk Island       7   22232122
      Culgoora            10   22233232
      Gingin              11   22233233
      Camden              10   22233232
      Canberra             6   12232121
      Launceston          13   23343232
      Hobart              12   23333232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    18   12255421
      Casey               30   66433223
      Mawson              23   34334354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov : 
      Darwin              46   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2122 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Nov     6    Quiet
26 Nov     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
UT day, 23 November, with isolated cases of Active conditions 
at higher latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail today, 
24 November, followed by Quiet conditions on 25-26 November.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Nov   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly MUFs over the next three 
days in the Australian region with possible short periods of 
fadeouts during local day associated with M-class or greater 
flares. Sporadic E observed at Brisbane station during the UT 
day, 23 November. Isolated cases also noted at other Australian 
stations.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    63100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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