[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 23 10:30:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 22 November.
The largest flare was a C8.1 at 00101UT from active region 2209
(S15w42). Expect C-class flares with a possible M-class flare
and slight chance for an X class flare over the next three days.
The solar wind ranged between 400 to 350 over the last 24 hours.
Expect the solar wind to remain in this range or slightly above
over the next 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field varied between +5/-7 nT over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 22221133
Cocos Island 7 22111133
Darwin 7 22221123
Townsville 7 22121133
Learmonth 6 22121123
Alice Springs 6 22121123
Norfolk Island 5 12121122
Culgoora 7 12221133
Gingin 8 22122233
Camden 9 23222133
Canberra 5 12221122
Launceston 11 23232233
Hobart 10 23232223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 11 22251212
Casey 26 55533224
Mawson 20 44332235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 4313 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day, 22 November with isolated cases of Active conditions
at higher latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail over
the next three days
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced
conditions over the next three days in the Australian region
with possible short periods of fadeouts during local day associated
with M-class or greater flares. Sporadic E observed at Norfolk
Island station during the UT day, 22 November, particularly between
06 and 13 UT. Isolated cases also noted in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 65400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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