[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 23 10:30:31 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 167/121


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Nov             24 Nov             25 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 22 November. 
The largest flare was a C8.1 at 00101UT from active region 2209 
(S15w42). Expect C-class flares with a possible M-class flare 
and slight chance for an X class flare over the next three days. 
The solar wind ranged between 400 to 350 over the last 24 hours. 
Expect the solar wind to remain in this range or slightly above 
over the next 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field varied between +5/-7 nT over the last 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22221133
      Cocos Island         7   22111133
      Darwin               7   22221123
      Townsville           7   22121133
      Learmonth            6   22121123
      Alice Springs        6   22121123
      Norfolk Island       5   12121122
      Culgoora             7   12221133
      Gingin               8   22122233
      Camden               9   23222133
      Canberra             5   12221122
      Launceston          11   23232233
      Hobart              10   23232223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    11   22251212
      Casey               26   55533224
      Mawson              20   44332235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   4313 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
UT day, 22 November with isolated cases of Active conditions 
at higher latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail over 
the next three days

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Nov   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Nov   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Nov   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced 
conditions over the next three days in the Australian region 
with possible short periods of fadeouts during local day associated 
with M-class or greater flares. Sporadic E observed at Norfolk 
Island station during the UT day, 22 November, particularly between 
06 and 13 UT. Isolated cases also noted in the Australian region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    65400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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