[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 21 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 22 10:30:34 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 163/117


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Nov             23 Nov             24 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 21 November. 
The largest flare was a C1.9 at 0445UT from active region 2209 
(S15w30). Expect C-class flares with a possible M-class flare 
and slight chance for an X class flare over the next three days. 
The solar wind ranged between 360 to 440 over the last 24 hours. 
Expect the solar wind to remain in this range over the next 24 
hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
varied between +/-7 nT over the last 24 hours. LASCO C2 imagery 
showed a CME on the Northeast limb beginning at 1524UT, however 
is not Earthward directed.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32232221
      Cocos Island         6   22121231
      Darwin              10   33232222
      Townsville          11   33233222
      Learmonth            7   22132221
      Alice Springs        9   33232221
      Norfolk Island       6   22222221
      Culgoora             8   32232221
      Gingin              12   32233332
      Camden              11   33233222
      Canberra             7   22232121
      Launceston          14   33343232
      Hobart              13   32343231    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    22   23264431
      Casey               28   56542222
      Mawson              28   65334333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov : 
      Darwin              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3223 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
UT day, 21 November with isolated cases of Active conditions 
at higher latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail over 
the next three days

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Nov   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Nov   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Nov   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced 
conditions over the next three days in the Australian region 
with possible short periods of fadeouts during local day associated 
with M-class or greater flares. Cases of sporadic E observed 
in the Nuie, Norfolk Island, and the Australian region during 
the UT day, 21 November, particularly between 06 and 13 UT.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    62900 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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