[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 21 10:30:30 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 168/122


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 20 November. 
The largest flare was a C7.6 at 0641UT from active region 2216 
(S12E67). Expect C-class flares with possible M-class flares 
and a slight chance for an X-class flare over the next three 
days. The solar wind ranged between 425 to 375 over the last 
24 hours. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range over 
the next 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field varied between +5/-6 nT over the last 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21231232
      Cocos Island         5   11121131
      Darwin               8   21232232
      Townsville           9   32231232
      Learmonth            8   22131232
      Alice Springs        8   21231232
      Norfolk Island       5   21220131
      Culgoora             7   11231231
      Gingin               9   21232332
      Camden               8   21232231
      Canberra             4   11121221
      Launceston          10   22232332
      Hobart              10   22232332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    14   12343431
      Casey               17   44432233
      Mawson              27   54333362

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov : 
      Darwin              42   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2111 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
UT day, 20 November with isolated cases of Active conditions 
at higher latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail over 
the next three days

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Nov   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced 
conditions over the next three days in the Australian region 
with possible short periods of fadeouts during local day associated 
with M-class or greater flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    66300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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