[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 20 10:30:34 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 170/124


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Nov             21 Nov             22 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            180/133            185/138

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 19 November. 
The largest flare was a C2.6 at 2150UT from active region 2209 
(S13W06). Active region 2209 is expected to produce M/C-class 
flares over the UT day, 20 November, with a slight chance of 
an X-class flare. The solar wind decreased from 440 to 400 km/s 
over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain around 400km/s 
range for the next 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field varied between +/-5 nT over the last 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21222121
      Cocos Island         4   21122120
      Darwin               8   41222122
      Townsville           5   21222121
      Learmonth            4   20122112
      Alice Springs        4   20222111
      Norfolk Island       4   20112121
      Culgoora             5   20222121
      Gingin               7   20223222
      Camden               5   21222121
      Canberra             3   10212011
      Launceston           7   21223122
      Hobart               7   21223122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     5   10123211
      Casey               19   45433222
      Mawson              23   53333353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov : 
      Darwin              72   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1223 3211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Nov     6    Quiet
21 Nov     6    Quiet
22 Nov     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet in the Australian region 
over the UT day, 19 November with isolated cases of Unsettled 
conditions. Isolated cases of Active conditions in the Antarctic 
region otherwise Quiet to Unsettled. Expect these conditions 
to prevail over the next three days

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Nov   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Nov   150    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
21 Nov   150    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov   150    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 17 
November and is current for 18-20 Nov. Expect near predicted 
monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced conditions over the next three 
days in the Australian region with possible short periods of 
fadeouts during local day associated with M-class or greater 
flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    70800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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