[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 19 10:30:34 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 167/121


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            180/133

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 18 November. 
The largest flare was a C1.8 at 0809UT from active region 2209 
(S13E11). A CME first observed by SOHO LASCO C2 imagery on the 
north east limb at 18/0600UT is not Earthward directed. Active 
region 2209 is expected to produce M/C-class flares over the 
UT day, 19 November, with a slight to moderate chance of an X-class 
flare. The solar wind decreased from 500 to 410 km/s over the 
last 24 hours and is expected to remain around 400km/s range 
or slightly above for the next 24 hours. The Bz component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/-5 nT over 
the last 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22123311
      Cocos Island         5   22123200
      Darwin               7   22123311
      Townsville           9   32223311
      Learmonth            6   22123300
      Alice Springs        7   22123301
      Norfolk Island       5   22122211
      Culgoora             7   22223211
      Gingin              10   32124311
      Camden               7   22223211
      Canberra             5   22113200
      Launceston          12   33224312
      Hobart               9   32223311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    13   23244311
      Casey               17   45423212
      Mawson              19   54334321

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov : 
      Darwin              65   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2002 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
UT day, 18 November, with isolated cases of Active conditions 
at high latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail over the 
next three days

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Nov   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov   117    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov   117    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Nov   117    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 17 
November and is current for 18-20 Nov. Expect near predicted 
monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced conditions over the next three 
days in the Australian region with possible short periods of 
fadeouts during local day associated with M-class or greater 
flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    91100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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