[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 18 10:30:41 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 168/122


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Nov             19 Nov             20 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 17 November. 
The largest flare was a C6.5 at 0907UT from active region 2205 
(N15) rotating around the west limb out of view. No significant 
earthward directed CME has been observed by the time of this 
report. Active region 2209 (S14E17) is expected to produce M/C-class 
flares over the UT day, 18 November, with a slight to moderate 
chance of an X-class flare. The solar wind ranged from 440 to 
500 km/s and is expected to remain in this range for the next 
24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
varied between +5/-6 nT over the last 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11112332
      Cocos Island         7   11122331
      Darwin               8   11112333
      Townsville           7   11212332
      Learmonth            6   11112322
      Alice Springs        6   10112332
      Norfolk Island       3   01112121
      Culgoora             6   11112232
      Gingin               9   11122432
      Camden               6   21112232
      Canberra             4   00112222
      Launceston          10   11223333
      Hobart               7   11122332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     8   11133321
      Casey               22   45433342
      Mawson              29   44433463
      Davis               28   35533453

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov : 
      Darwin              54   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20   4433 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
UT day, 17 November, with isolated cases of Active conditions 
at high latitudes. Expect these conditions to prevail over the 
next three days

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Short wave fades possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Nov   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 17 
November and is current for 18-20 Nov. Expect near predicted 
monthly MUFs to mildly enhanced conditions over the next three 
days with possible short periods of fadeouts during local day 
associated with M-class or greater flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 596 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   334000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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