[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 17 10:30:29 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/--    1748UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 172/126


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 
2209(S15E31) produced an M5.7 flare that peaked at 1748UT. No 
significant earthward directed CME has been observed by the time 
of this report. As anticipated, solar wind speed showed a gradual 
decrease from around 630 km/s to 500 km/s during the UT day today. 
The Bz component of IMF mostly stayed negative up to -8nT during 
this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at moderate levels 
with the possibility of up to X class activity during the next 
three days. Solar wind stream is expected to gradually weaken 
over the next two days as the coronal hole effects diminishes 
further.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 
with some Active periods

Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   32333322
      Cocos Island         6   22222211
      Darwin              11   32332322
      Townsville          12   32333232
      Learmonth            9   32233212
      Alice Springs       12   23333322
      Norfolk Island       9   22232232
      Culgoora            13   23333332
      Gingin              12   32333322
      Camden              14   33333332
      Canberra             8   222332-1
      Launceston          17   33344332
      Hobart              16   33344322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    34   35465521
      Casey               28   46533333
      Mawson              46   55644536
      Davis               54   46754535

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov : 
      Darwin              46   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             12   2333 3024     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov    12    Unsettled
18 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied between Quiet and Unsettled 
levels with some Active periods over the last 24 hours. Due to 
an expected gradual weakening of the coronal hole effect, geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be at mostly Unsettled on 17, Quiet to 
Unsettled on 18 and Quiet levels on 19 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF enhancements on low latitudes and 
minor to mild MUF depressions on mid latitudes were observed 
today. Due to expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
minor to mild MUF depressions may be observed on mid and high 
latitudes on 17 November. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected on 18 and 19 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Nov    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
18 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF enhancements on low latitudes and 
minor to mild MUF depressions on mid latitudes were observed 
today. Due to expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
minor to mild MUF depressions may be observed across Aus/NZ regions 
on 17 November. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in 
this region on 18 and 19 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 514 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   202000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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