[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 16 10:30:28 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.3    1203UT  possible   lower  European
  M3.7    2046UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 161/115


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Nov             17 Nov             18 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            165/119

COMMENT: Moderate levels of solar activity have been observed 
during the last 24 hours. Region 2209(S13E63) produced two M3 
flares, the largest event being an M3.7 that peaked at 2046UT. 
No significant earthward directed CME has been observed by the 
time of this report. Solar wind speed varied between around 450 
km/s and 600 km/s during the UT day today, showing an increasing 
trend towards the end of the day. The Bz component of IMF mostly 
stayed negative up to -7nT during this period. Solar activity 
is expected to stay at moderate levels with the possibility of 
up to X class activity during the next three days. As expected, 
solar wind stream seems to have started gaining strength due 
to the coronal hole effect. This effect is expected to keep the 
solar wind stream stronger over the next two days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22233123
      Cocos Island         8   22223123
      Darwin              12   32233233
      Townsville          13   2-334133
      Learmonth            8   22223123
      Alice Springs        9   22233123
      Norfolk Island       7   22223122
      Culgoora            10   23233123
      Gingin              12   22234124
      Camden              10   23233123
      Canberra             8   12233023
      Launceston          16   33344133
      Hobart              11   23333123    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    27   23655123
      Casey               26   56333124
      Mawson              31   44433356
      Davis               41   34663246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov : 
      Darwin              80   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3321 2133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active
17 Nov    12    Unsettled
18 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied between Quiet and Unsettled 
levels over the last 24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions 
on 16 November, mostly Unsettled on 17 November and Quiet to 
Unsettled conditions on 18 November may be expected. This rise 
in the activity levels is expected to happen due to the effect 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor
17 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Due to expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels, minor to mild MUF depressions may be expected 
on 16 November and minor depressions on 17 November. HF conditions 
are expected to return to mostly normal on 18 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Nov   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
17 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
18 Nov   130    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Due to expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels, minor to mild MUF depressions may be expected 
on 16 November and minor depressions on 17 November. HF conditions 
are expected to return to mostly normal on 18 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   166000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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