[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 15 10:30:34 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 161/115


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Nov             16 Nov             17 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity remained low during the last 24 hours. 
Today's largest flare was a C5.4 event from region 2209(S15E56) 
at 0748UT. Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from around 
450 km/s to 550 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component 
of IMF mostly stayed close to the normal value showing variations 
between +/-7 nT at times during this period. Solar activity is 
expected to stay at moderate levels with the possibility of up 
to X class activity during the next three days. Solar wind stream 
may gain strength from late on 15 November or early 16 November 
due to an expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from 
a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   33422222
      Cocos Island         9   23412221
      Darwin              12   33422223
      Townsville          12   33423222
      Learmonth            8   23312222
      Alice Springs       10   23422222
      Norfolk Island      10   33412122
      Culgoora            11   33422222
      Gingin              11   33323222
      Camden              12   33423222
      Canberra             9   23412122
      Launceston          14   34423222
      Hobart              12   33423222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     9   32323121
      Casey               41   57633233
      Mawson              32   45424364
      Davis               30   45434362

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov : 
      Darwin              77   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active
17 Nov    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied between Quiet and Active 
levels over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
on 15 November, Unsettled to Active on 16 November and mostly 
Unsettled on 17 November may be expected. This rise in the activity 
levels is expected to happen due to the expected effect of a 
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. In the IPS 
magnetometer data for 14 Nov, a weak (11nT) impulse was observed 
at 0550UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected for most parts of the UT day 15 November and possibly 
on 17 November. Minor to mild MUF depressions may be expected 
late on 15 November and throughout the day on 16 November due 
to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during this period. 
Minor MUF depressions on high latitudes are also possible on 
17 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Nov   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Nov   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
17 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected for most parts of the UT day 15 November and possibly 
on 17 November in the Aus/NZ regions. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
may be expected late on 15 November and throughout the day on 
16 November due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity during 
this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list