[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 13 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 14 10:30:33 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 154/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Nov             15 Nov             16 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            180/133            180/133

COMMENT: Solar activity remained low during the last 24 hours. 
Today's largest flare was a C8 event from region 2209(N14W16) 
at 06076UT. Solar wind speed remained enhanced between around 
460 km/s and 500 km/s during most parts of the UT day today. 
The Bz component of IMF mostly stayed positive around +6 nT during 
this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at moderate levels 
for the next three days with the possibility of up to X class 
activity during the next three days. Solar wind stream may gain 
strength from late on 15 November or early 16 November due to 
an expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal 
hole. Region 2192 (S15) which previously produced X-flare(s) 
is due to return around 13 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111012
      Cocos Island         6   41111111
      Darwin               5   22121122
      Townsville           4   21121112
      Learmonth            4   21121012
      Alice Springs        3   21111012
      Norfolk Island       2   11011012
      Culgoora             3   21111021
      Gingin               4   21121022
      Camden               4   22111021
      Canberra             1   --1100-1
      Launceston           5   22111122
      Hobart               3   22111011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   12010011
      Casey               20   45442123
      Mawson              15   35333122
      Davis               13   34333222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov : 
      Darwin              59   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3121 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Nov     4    Quiet
15 Nov     4    Quiet
16 Nov    12    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels over the 
last 24 hours. Nearly similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected 
on 14 and most parts of 15 November. Geomagnetic activity my 
increase to Unsettled and possibly Active levels from late on 
15 November or early on 16 November due to an expected effect 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected on 14 and most parts of 15 November. Minor to mild 
MUF depressions may be expected late on 15 November and throughout 
the day on 16 November due to an expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Nov   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Nov    90    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected on 14 and most parts of 15 November in the Aus/NZ 
regions. Minor to mild MUF depressions may be expected late on 
15 November and throughout the day on 16 November due to an expected 
rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 548 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   200000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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