[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 12 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 13 10:30:27 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            180/133            180/133

COMMENT: Solar activity remained low during the last 24 hours. 
Today's largest flare was a C5 event from region 2205(N14W16) 
at 1046UT. Solar wind speed remained enhanced between around 
500 km/s and 600 km/s during most parts of the UT day today. 
The Bz component of IMF mostly stayed positive around +7 nT during 
this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at moderate levels 
for the next three days with the possibility of M-class activity 
on 13 November and the possibility of X class activity on 14 
and 15 November. Region 2192 (S15) which previously produced 
X-flare(s) is due to return around 13 Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22210022
      Cocos Island         3   22110011
      Darwin               5   22211122
      Townsville           5   22210122
      Learmonth            4   22211012
      Alice Springs        4   22210012
      Norfolk Island       3   12110012
      Culgoora             4   22210022
      Gingin               4   22210022
      Camden               5   22210122
      Canberra             2   22100011
      Launceston           7   33210122
      Hobart               6   33210012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     3   22210011
      Casey               36   37642123
      Mawson              19   44422125
      Davis               17   45412033

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov : 
      Darwin              63   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   2111 1224     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov     4    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Nov     4    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Nov     4    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels with 
some Unsettled periods for the last 24 hours. Nearly similar 
geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Nov    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov    90    Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov    90    Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected for the next three days in the Aus/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 470 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    88400 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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