[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 12 10:30:32 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     Low                Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            180/133            180/133

COMMENT: Solar activity remained low during the last 24 hours. 
Several C-class flares were observed today, most from region 
2205. Today's largest flare was a C6 event from 2205(N17W14) 
at 1122UT. Solar wind speed stayed between around 480 km/s and 
510 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF mostly 
stayed positive around +5 nT and showed some fluctuations between 
+/-10 nT during the last few hours of the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to stay at low levels with a chance of M class activity 
on 12 November and at moderate levels for the following two days 
thereafter.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32222123
      Cocos Island         6   22211123
      Darwin              10   32222124
      Townsville           9   32222223
      Learmonth            8   32222123
      Alice Springs        8   32222123
      Norfolk Island       8   32222123
      Culgoora            10   32222224
      Gingin               9   22222124
      Camden              11   33222224
      Canberra             6   22122113
      Launceston          11   33222224
      Hobart              10   33222223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    10   33123223
      Casey               28   56442224
      Mawson              24   44332236
      Davis               17   44343223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov : 
      Darwin              72   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             17   4224 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov     5    Quiet
13 Nov     4    Quiet
14 Nov     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
for the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay 
at Quiet levels for the next three days with some possibility 
of isolated Unsettled periods on 12 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Nov    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed 
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may 
be expected for the next three days in the Aus/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   205000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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