[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 12 10:30:32 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Low Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low during the last 24 hours.
Several C-class flares were observed today, most from region
2205. Today's largest flare was a C6 event from 2205(N17W14)
at 1122UT. Solar wind speed stayed between around 480 km/s and
510 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF mostly
stayed positive around +5 nT and showed some fluctuations between
+/-10 nT during the last few hours of the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to stay at low levels with a chance of M class activity
on 12 November and at moderate levels for the following two days
thereafter.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 32222123
Cocos Island 6 22211123
Darwin 10 32222124
Townsville 9 32222223
Learmonth 8 32222123
Alice Springs 8 32222123
Norfolk Island 8 32222123
Culgoora 10 32222224
Gingin 9 22222124
Camden 11 33222224
Canberra 6 22122113
Launceston 11 33222224
Hobart 10 33222223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 33123223
Casey 28 56442224
Mawson 24 44332236
Davis 17 44343223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 72 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 17 4224 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 5 Quiet
13 Nov 4 Quiet
14 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet to Unsettled levels
for the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay
at Quiet levels for the next three days with some possibility
of isolated Unsettled periods on 12 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
on low and mid latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for the next three days in the Aus/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 205000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list