[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 11 10:30:34 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     Low                Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             165/119            180/133

COMMENT: Solar activity remained low during the last 24 hours. 
Several C-class flares were observed today, most from region 
2205(N14W08). Today's largest flare was a C7 event from 2205 
at 0222UT. Solar wind speed increased from around 420 km/s to 
over 500 km/s during the first 2 hours of the UT day today and 
then stayed around 500 km/s during the rest of the day. The Bz 
component of IMF went up to around +20 nT around 0200 UT, stayed 
positive until mid day and then varied between +/-8 nT during 
the rest of the day. Solar activity is expected to stay at low 
levels with a chance of M class activity on 11 November and at 
moderate levels for the following two days thereafter.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   33333432
      Cocos Island        13   32333422
      Darwin              16   33333433
      Townsville          15   33333432
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Alice Springs       14   33333422
      Norfolk Island      13   33332332
      Culgoora            15   33333432
      Gingin              16   32343432
      Camden              15   33333432
      Canberra            13   32333422
      Launceston          23   43443533
      Hobart              21   33443532    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    33   32265642
      Casey               58   67753333
      Mawson              33   44454642
      Davis               36   44664432

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov : 
      Darwin              78   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2221 1322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active
12 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Nov     6    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 9 November 
and is current for 10-11 Nov. Geomagnetic activity increased 
to Active levels today with some periods of minor storm periods 
recorded at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity may stay at 
Unsettled to Active levels on 11 November and gradually decline 
to Unsettled and then to Quiet levels during the following two 
days thereafter.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements on low and 
mid latitudes and periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were 
observed on mid and high latitudes today. Mostly normal HF conditions 
may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Nov    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov    90    Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 8 
November and is current for 9-11 Nov. Periods of minor to mild 
MUF enhancements on low and mid latitudes and periods of minor 
to mild MUF depressions were observed on mid and high latitudes 
today. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 
three days in the Aus/NZ regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 430 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    81600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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