[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 10 10:30:31 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    1532UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             145/99             150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity is Moderate with an M2 flare being produced 
by region 2205(N15E18) peaking at 1532UT along with several C 
class flares from the same region. No CME was observed in association 
with the M flare. Solar wind conditions are ambient. ACE EPAM 
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 09/2040UT, 
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over 
next 24-36 hours. This is most likely due to the partial halo 
CME observed on the 7th of November which is expected to produce 
a glancing blow within the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32211122
      Cocos Island         3   21101121
      Darwin               6   31211122
      Townsville           7   32212122
      Learmonth            7   311-----
      Alice Springs        4   21102122
      Norfolk Island       4   21101122
      Culgoora             5   21211222
      Gingin               7   31211132
      Camden               6   22211222
      Canberra             4   23101111
      Launceston           8   32312222
      Hobart               6   32201222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     5   32100222
      Casey               24   55532223
      Mawson              16   43422342
      Davis               13   33423232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov : 
      Darwin              69   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   1012 2202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov    25    Active to Minor Storm
11 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active
12 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 9 November 
and is current for 10-11 Nov. A glancing blow from a CME is expected 
within the next 24 hours and may cause Active to Minor storm 
conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Nov   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 8 
November and is current for 9-11 Nov. Maximum useable frequencies 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Some depressed MUFs 
may be experience in southern regions on the 11th of November 
due to geomagnetic disturbance.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 473 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   105000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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