[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 08 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 9 10:30:30 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with several C class
flares observed, the greatest at C4 level. Region 2205(N15E32)
remains the most significant region on the visible Sun. Solar
wind conditions are ambient. The CME observed in association
with the X1 flare late on the 7th is expected to produced a glancing
blow on the 10th. Most of the material appears directed to the
east and north, but some effects at Earth are possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 12222213
Cocos Island 4 11122211
Darwin 9 22222224
Townsville 6 11122223
Learmonth 4 21112112
Alice Springs 7 12222213
Norfolk Island 3 11111112
Culgoora 7 12222223
Gingin 6 23212112
Camden 7 12222223
Canberra 4 12111112
Launceston 8 23222213
Hobart 7 22222213
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 12133202
Casey 20 35532223
Mawson 13 23433223
Davis 10 23333212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 92 (Minor storm)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 125 (Severe storm)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3222 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 5 Quiet
10 Nov 20 Active
11 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. This is expected to continue
until the possible arrival of the edge of a CME on the 10th.
This may produced some Active periods and Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values
Depressions of 20% in local day in Western Australia
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 8
November and is current for 9-11 Nov. Maximum useable frequencies
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Good conditions for
HF radio propagation are expected for the next 3 days. A HF radio
communications warning is current due to the probability of short
wave fadeouts from continued x-ray flare activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 458 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 75200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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