[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 08 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 9 10:30:30 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with several C class 
flares observed, the greatest at C4 level. Region 2205(N15E32) 
remains the most significant region on the visible Sun. Solar 
wind conditions are ambient. The CME observed in association 
with the X1 flare late on the 7th is expected to produced a glancing 
blow on the 10th. Most of the material appears directed to the 
east and north, but some effects at Earth are possible.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12222213
      Cocos Island         4   11122211
      Darwin               9   22222224
      Townsville           6   11122223
      Learmonth            4   21112112
      Alice Springs        7   12222213
      Norfolk Island       3   11111112
      Culgoora             7   12222223
      Gingin               6   23212112
      Camden               7   12222223
      Canberra             4   12111112
      Launceston           8   23222213
      Hobart               7   22222213    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     7   12133202
      Casey               20   35532223
      Mawson              13   23433223
      Davis               10   23333212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin              92   (Minor storm)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin             125   (Severe storm)
      Canberra            56   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3222 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov     5    Quiet
10 Nov    20    Active
11 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. This is expected to continue 
until the possible arrival of the edge of a CME on the 10th. 
This may produced some Active periods and Unsettled conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values
      Depressions of 20% in local day in Western Australia
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov    90    Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 8 
November and is current for 9-11 Nov. Maximum useable frequencies 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Good conditions for 
HF radio propagation are expected for the next 3 days. A HF radio 
communications warning is current due to the probability of short 
wave fadeouts from continued x-ray flare activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:    75200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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