[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 8 10:30:28 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/--    1726UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 146/100


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   148/102            148/102            148/102

COMMENT: Solar activity is at High levels with an X1 class flare 
being produced by region 2205(N15E34) peaking at 1726UT as well 
as 2 M2 flares from that same region earlier in the day. Several 
CMEs were observed, the most prominent, associated with the X1 
flare, is shown as a partial halo CME in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph 
imagery. A glancing blow from this event may be experience in 
2-3 days time. More details of this event will be given in tomorrow's 
report when more data and model results are available. The solar 
wind speed is less than 500 km/s. The IMF Bt increased to up 
to 10nT with some brief southward excursions. M and possibly 
X class flare can be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22232223
      Cocos Island         7   2213221-
      Darwin              10   23232223
      Townsville          11   23232233
      Learmonth            8   22232222
      Alice Springs        8   2223222-
      Norfolk Island      10   22232233
      Culgoora             9   22232223
      Gingin               8   2223132-
      Camden               9   22232223
      Canberra             7   12131123
      Launceston          11   33232223
      Hobart              10   23232223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     8   2233211-
      Casey               22   4543233-
      Mawson              17   3533322-
      Davis               15   34333233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov : 
      Darwin              91   (Minor storm)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              5   2121 2102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Nov     5    Quiet
10 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are mostly Quiet with some Unsettled 
periods which may also be experienced tomorrow. Conditions should 
be Quiet for the 9th. On the 10th a possible glancing blow from 
a CME may cause Unsettled to Active levels of disturbance.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Nov   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 5 
November and is current for 6-8 Nov. Maximum useable frequencies 
were near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15%. Good conditions 
for HF radio propagation are expected for the next 3 days. A 
HF radio communications warning is current due to the probability 
of short wave fadeouts from continued x-ray flare activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 472 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    96700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list