[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Nov 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 8 10:30:28 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/-- 1726UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 148/102 148/102
COMMENT: Solar activity is at High levels with an X1 class flare
being produced by region 2205(N15E34) peaking at 1726UT as well
as 2 M2 flares from that same region earlier in the day. Several
CMEs were observed, the most prominent, associated with the X1
flare, is shown as a partial halo CME in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph
imagery. A glancing blow from this event may be experience in
2-3 days time. More details of this event will be given in tomorrow's
report when more data and model results are available. The solar
wind speed is less than 500 km/s. The IMF Bt increased to up
to 10nT with some brief southward excursions. M and possibly
X class flare can be expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 22232223
Cocos Island 7 2213221-
Darwin 10 23232223
Townsville 11 23232233
Learmonth 8 22232222
Alice Springs 8 2223222-
Norfolk Island 10 22232233
Culgoora 9 22232223
Gingin 8 2223132-
Camden 9 22232223
Canberra 7 12131123
Launceston 11 33232223
Hobart 10 23232223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 2233211-
Casey 22 4543233-
Mawson 17 3533322-
Davis 15 34333233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 91 (Minor storm)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 5 2121 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Nov 5 Quiet
10 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are mostly Quiet with some Unsettled
periods which may also be experienced tomorrow. Conditions should
be Quiet for the 9th. On the 10th a possible glancing blow from
a CME may cause Unsettled to Active levels of disturbance.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 5
November and is current for 6-8 Nov. Maximum useable frequencies
were near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15%. Good conditions
for HF radio propagation are expected for the next 3 days. A
HF radio communications warning is current due to the probability
of short wave fadeouts from continued x-ray flare activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 96700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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