[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 7 10:30:29 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/--    0346UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity is at High levels with 3 M class flares 
occurring over the last 24 hours the greatest being an M5. All 
were produced by region 2205(N16E56) which also produced C class 
flares. Two CMEs were observed directed towards the north east 
but neither is expected to be geoeffective. An M2 class flare 
is just concluding at time of writing and any CME from this cannot 
yet be characterised. Further information will be given in tomorrow's 
report if relevant. The solar wind speed has reduced to under 
500 km/s and the Bt to the typical level of around 5nT. Further 
M and possibly X class flare can be expected from region 2205 
over the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212112
      Cocos Island         3   22111101
      Darwin               8   32212123
      Townsville           7   23212122
      Learmonth            5   22112112
      Alice Springs        5   12212112
      Norfolk Island       4   22112012
      Culgoora             5   22212112
      Gingin               6   22212113
      Camden               6   23212112
      Canberra             3   12112002
      Launceston           8   23213113
      Hobart               6   23212012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     6   12204012
      Casey               19   35532123
      Mawson              17   34323215
      Davis               17   34443123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov : 
      Darwin              74   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              62   (Active)
      Canberra            60   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             12   3323 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov     5    Quiet
08 Nov     5    Quiet
09 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet magnetic conditions with some Unsettled 
periods are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Nov   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Nov   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Nov   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 5 
November and is current for 6-8 Nov. Maximum useable frequencies 
were near predicted monthly values. Good conditions for HF radio 
propagation are expected for the next 3 days. A HF radio communications 
warning has been issued for the next 3 days due to the probability 
of HF fadeouts from expected high levels of xray flare activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 504 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   189000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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