[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 6 10:30:35 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M7/--    0947UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Nov             07 Nov             08 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity is a High levels with the greatest flare 
over the last 24 hours being an M7 from region 2205(N15E66) peaking 
at 0947UT. This region also produced an M3 class flare peaking 
at 1944UT and several C class flares. No CMEs with geoeffective 
potential were observed. The solar wind speed steadily increased 
over the day and is now around 550 km/s. The IMF Bt dropeed from 
a peak of 12nT to just over 5nT. Several southward excursions 
below -5nT occurred in Bz. Solar activity is expected to be moderate 
to high for the next 3 days as region 2205 retains the potential 
for M or X class flares. The solar wind speed is expected to 
remain elevated for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   33333222
      Cocos Island         8   33222211
      Darwin              14   43333223
      Townsville          14   33333233
      Learmonth           11   33323222
      Alice Springs       12   33333222
      Norfolk Island      10   33332122
      Culgoora            13   33333232
      Gingin              13   42324222
      Camden              13   33333232
      Canberra             8   23322122
      Launceston          15   33334233
      Hobart              12   33333222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    17   33354222
      Casey               35   56643233
      Mawson              24   34543225
      Davis               34   3455----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov : 
      Darwin              88   (Minor storm)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              81   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            69   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18   1124 5443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Nov    12    Unsettled
07 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are unsettled due to elevated solar 
wind speed and magnetic field strength. These conditions are 
expected to continue for the next 3 days, with some chance of 
isolated active periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Nov   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 5 
November and is current for 6-8 Nov. Maximum useable frequencies 
were near predicted monthly values with enhancements observed 
during local night in most regions. Good conditions for HF radio 
propagation are expected for the next 3 days. A HF radion communications 
warning has been issued for the next 3 days due to the probability 
of HF fadeouts from expected high levels of xray flare activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    9.3 p/cc  Temp:    65700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list