[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 5 10:30:48 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M6/-- 03/2240UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Nov             06 Nov             07 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels. The most significant 
x-ray flare over the past 24 hours was an M2 flare from newly 
numbered region 2205(N14E85) which has produced several M flares 
over the last few days as it rotates onto the visible Sun. Numerous 
C class flare were also observed from this region. Several CMEs 
were observed but none are expected to be geoeffective. The total 
field strength of the solar wind increased to over 10nT over 
the day with several southward excursions of up to -10nT. Flare 
activity is expected to remain at Moderate levels with the chance 
of High (greater than M5 flares) over the next few days, entirely 
due to region 2205. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually 
increase over the next few days as a coronal hole high speed 
wind stream comes into effect.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      16   22334343
      Cocos Island        15   12334343
      Darwin              14   22334333
      Townsville          16   22334343
      Learmonth           17   21334344
      Alice Springs       14   22334333
      Norfolk Island      12   11334233
      Culgoora            15   21334343
      Gingin              24   11345544
      Camden              16   22334343
      Canberra            12   11333333
      Launceston          20   22344444
      Hobart              17   12344433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    23   11455433
      Casey               21   44433244
      Mawson              36   22345466
      Davis               22   32543344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov : 
      Darwin              97   (Minor storm)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: In the IPS magnetometer data for 04 Nov, a weak (13nT) 
impulse was observed at 1209UT. This produced a period of Active 
conditions amongst otherwise Unsettled levels of activity. This 
corresponded to an unexpected increase in the total field strength 
of the interplanetary magnetic field with several southward excursions. 
The Bt remains elevated and Unsettled conditions with a chance 
of isolated Active periods can be expected for the next day or 
two.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Nov   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies were near predicted monthly 
values with enhancements observed during local night in most 
regions. Good conditions for HF radio propagation are expected 
for the next 3 days with rising levels of ionising EUV flux and 
no significant geomagnetic disturbance expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    48300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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