[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 Nov 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 4 10:30:34 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.2    1155UT  possible   lower  European
  M6.5    2241UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Nov             05 Nov             06 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels. Two M class flares, 
and M2 and an M6, were produced from a region rotating around 
the eastern limb. No geoeffective CMEs were observed, however 
the relevant data is currently patchy. A type II radio burst 
was seen in conjunction with the M6 flare. Region 2201(S05E23) 
produced several C class flares, the greatest a C4 peaking at 
0352UT. A type II radio burst was seen in conjunction with this 
event. No CME of significance appears to have been produced but 
SOHO/LASCO data is patchy around the relevant period. More data 
should be available later and if relevant will be noted in tomorrow's 
report. The solar wind speed reduced from around 500 km/s to 
400 km/s over the day as the influence of a coronal hole high 
speed stream abates. The greater then 10 MeV proton flux has 
reduced to well below the event threshold.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   31210012
      Cocos Island         2   21110002
      Darwin               7   31221113
      Townsville           7   32221113
      Learmonth            4   31110003
      Alice Springs        5   31210013
      Norfolk Island       4   31110012
      Culgoora             4   31110012
      Gingin               4   30110003
      Camden               5   32210012
      Canberra             2   21110002
      Launceston           5   32211012
      Hobart               3   22210002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   21110001
      Casey               14   44432112
      Mawson               7   23221013
      Davis                9   33332111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov : 
      Darwin              71   (Active)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1100 3321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Nov     5    Quiet
05 Nov     5    Quiet
06 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are mostly Quiet and these conditions 
are expected to persist for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2145UT 02/11, Ended at 2210UT 02/11

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Nov   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Nov   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies were near predicted monthly 
values with some enhancements observed. Good conditions for HF 
radio propagation are expected for the next 3 days with rising 
levels of ionising EUV flux and no significant geomagnetic disturbance 
expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 471 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    81300 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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