[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 14 issued 2338 UT on 02 Nov 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 3 10:38:36 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             118/70

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
2201 (S05E23) was the source of a few B-class and a C-class event, 
the largest confirmed so far being a C3.5 flare at 1703UT. GONG 
network H-alpha imagery indicates a C9.4 event at 2105UT originated 
from the same vicinity of region 2201. Solar wind speed remained 
steady at ~500km/s over the UT day. Proton flux levels have increased 
slightly, crossing the 10MeV threshold level within the last 
2 hours. Bz again was predominantly northward, with southward 
periods between 10UT-17UT of maximum -4nT. Solar wind speed is 
expected to remain slightly elevated over the next 24 hours. 
Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next three days 
with the chance of an M-class event.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22123331
      Cocos Island         7   22122330
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville          11   22123432
      Learmonth            9   21123332
      Alice Springs        9   21123332
      Norfolk Island       8   22123322
      Culgoora             8   22123321
      Gingin               8   21023332
      Camden               7   21123321
      Canberra             6   11013321
      Launceston          11   22123432
      Hobart               8   22123321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     9   22025210
      Casey               13   43322332
      Mawson              15   33133441
      Davis               14   33243331

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1122 3211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov    12    Unsettled
04 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours with an isolated Active period for Southern AUS/NZ regions 
between 15UT-18UT. Unsettled conditions with possible Active 
periods are expected for the next 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions forecast for 04Nov-05Nov. In the IPS magnetometer 
data for 02 Nov, a weak (7nT) impulse was observed at 1754UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 03 11 2014 0845UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Nov    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      86
Dec      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies were near predicted monthly 
values for all stations over the UT day with notable enhanced 
ionospheric support for Equatorial regions regions during local 
day and night. Variable ionospheric support for Antarctic regions 
observed over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days with possible depressed periods for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions due to geomagnetic activity. Reduced ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions due to minor PCA event.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 489 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   227000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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