[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 14 issued 2349 UT on 01 Nov 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 2 10:49:37 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Nov             03 Nov             04 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   118/70             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
2201 (S05E39) was the source of numerous c-class events, the 
largest being a C7.2 flare at 1646UT. A notable filament eruption 
on the SE limb was observed in the Learmonth GONG H-alpha imagery 
beginning at 0422UT. Given its position (and non-halo CME status 
in LASCO C2 imagery from 0512UT onwards) the associated CME is 
not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed peaked at 580km/s 
at ~08UT and is currently ~500km/s. Proton flux levels have increased 
in the last 12 hours to be just below the >10MeV threshold. Bz 
again was predominantly northward with an isolated maximum southward 
value of -8nT. A notable step increase in the total magnetic 
field value (Bt) at ~07UT reaching a maximum of 15nT, gradually 
declining to be 8nT at the time of this report. Solar wind speed 
is expected to remain slightly elevated with the chance of an 
additional contribution from a small coronal hole high speed 
solar wind stream in the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected 
to be Low for the next three days. ACE EPAM data indicates an 
energetic ion enhancement event beginning 01/0635UT, which can 
be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 
hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11322121
      Cocos Island         5   11322111
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           6   12322121
      Learmonth            5   11222212
      Alice Springs        6   21322121
      Norfolk Island       5   11222112
      Culgoora             6   11322121
      Gingin               6   21222212
      Camden               6   11322121
      Canberra             3   10212020
      Launceston           8   22322132
      Hobart               6   12322121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     4   11212111
      Casey               29   45653222
      Mawson              14   33434212
      Davis                7   34000022

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1121 2132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active
03 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Nov     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours 
with possible Active periods. Mostly Quiet conditions for 03Nov-04Nov 
with possible Unsettled periods. In the IPS magnetometer data 
for 01 Nov, a weak (10nT) impulse was observed at 0706UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Nov    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      107
Nov      83
Dec      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Nov    90    Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values
04 Nov    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies were near predicted monthly 
values for all stations over the UT day with notable enhanced 
ionospheric support for Northern AUS regions regions during local 
day and during local night for Equatorial regions. Variable ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions observed over the last 24 hours. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible 
depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions due 
to geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   191000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list