[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 14 issued 2349 UT on 31 Oct 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 1 10:49:33 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Nov             02 Nov             03 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest 
event being a C2.3 flare from region 2201 (S05E53) at 0825UT. 
Solar wind speed remained slightly above 400km/s over the majority 
of the UT day. Bz was predominantly northward, ranging between 
+10nT and -8nT over the UT day. A narrow northern hemisphere 
located coronal hole may influence the solar wind stream in the 
next 48 hours having moved into geoeffective position. The average 
solar x-ray flux level has gradually declined over the last 48 
hours since large active region 2192 rotated off of the visible. 
Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12211122
      Cocos Island         3   12111111
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           7   22222132
      Learmonth            4   11111122
      Alice Springs        5   12211122
      Norfolk Island       4   12111122
      Culgoora             5   12211122
      Gingin               7   3-221222
      Camden               6   -3211122
      Canberra             3   12111021
      Launceston           8   23212232
      Hobart               6   13212122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     4   03201021
      Casey               30   46642123
      Mawson              19   34323154
      Davis               18   34433143

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              20   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Nov     5    Quiet
02 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
conditions are expected for 01Nov and mostly Quiet conditions 
for 02Nov-03Nov with possible Unsettled periods and isolated 
Active periods at high latitudes due to minor coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Oct   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      90
Oct      86
Nov      83

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Nov   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies were near predicted monthly 
values for all stations over the UT day with notable enhanced 
ionospheric support for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions 
during local day and during local night for Equatorial regions. 
Extended periods of degraded ionospheric support for Antarctic 
regions observed over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are 
expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    52000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list