[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 27 09:30:23 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity Low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 26 May. Active
region 2065(S19W86) produced several C-class flares, the largest
being a C3.8 at 26/0000UT with an associated CME observed in
LASCO imagery. This activity is not expected to be geo-effective.
Expect solar activity to go from Low to Very Low as AR2065 rotates
around the west limb. The solar wind decreased from 400 t 330
km/s over the last 24 hours and the Bz component of the IMF ranged
between +0/-3 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain between 300-400
km/s over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 1 10110000
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Norfolk Island 1 11100000
Culgoora 1 11110000
Gingin 0 01100000
Camden 1 11110000
Canberra 1 11100000
Launceston 1 11110000
Hobart 1 11110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 3 22121000
Mawson 7 33220013
Davis 5 13320020
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 2220 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 4 Quiet
28 May 4 Quiet
29 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet during the UT
day, 26 May. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal
28 May Normal Normal Normal
29 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
28 May 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 May 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Variable depressions to 35% observed in the Australian
region as EUV levels decline due to a decrease in sunspot numbers.
Expect similar conditions over the next few days. Note MUFs are
expected to remain lower than predicted due to this decrease
in EUV.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 61700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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