[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 28 09:30:24 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 27 May. Active
region 2065 produced a C4.9 X-ray flare with an associated type
II sweep measure at 624km/s and a type IV sweep as it rotated
around the west limb. This activity is not expected to be geo-effective.
Note minor flaring occurred from active regions 2071 and 2073.
Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low over the next three
days. The solar wind ranged between 300 and 350 km/s over the
last 24 hours and the Bz component of the IMF ranged between
+3/-5 nT. Expect the solar wind to remain between 300-400 km/s
over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 0 00000011
Cocos Island 0 10100000
Darwin 2 11100012
Townsville 2 01100012
Learmonth 0 00000011
Alice Springs 0 00000011
Norfolk Island 0 00000010
Culgoora 1 11100011
Gingin 0 00000020
Camden 1 00100011
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 00000011
Hobart 0 00000010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22100111
Mawson 8 11011044
Davis 10 01132144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 4 Quiet
29 May 4 Quiet
30 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region
during the UT day, 27 May. Late in the UT day there was an active
period at some of the Antarctic stations (Mawson and Davis) due
to a minor dip in the Bz component of the IMF. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal
29 May Normal Normal Normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Variable depressions to 35% observed in the Australian
region as EUV levels decline due to a decrease in sunspot numbers.
Expect similar conditions over the next three days. Note MUFs
are expected to remain lower than predicted due to this decrease
in EUV.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 45300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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