[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 26 09:30:15 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 112/63 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity for May 25 was low. An impulsive C2 level
flare from AR2065 (S19W73) was observed at 1153UT. Multiple C1
level flares were observed 2130-2330UT. A narrow NE directed
CME was seen in LASCO C2 imagery after 24/2224UT. A slow S-directed
CME was seen in LASCO C2 imagery after 1024UT. Neither event
is likely to have geoeffective consequences. Solar wind speed
continued to decline slowly and is currently around 400 km/s.
The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-3nT about neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11100200
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 1 11100101
Learmonth 2 11100200
Alice Springs 2 11100201
Norfolk Island 1 11000100
Culgoora 2 11100200
Gingin 2 11100200
Camden 1 11100100
Canberra 1 11000100
Launceston 2 11100200
Hobart 1 01000200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
Macquarie Island 0 01000010
Casey 4 32200210
Mawson 9 43211222
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg NA
Planetary 6 2120 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 7 Quiet. Chance unsettled periods.
27 May 5 Quiet
28 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline towards nominal
levels. The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet with isolated
unsettled intervals at high latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
next three days. Minor solar wind disturbance leading to isolated
Unsettled geomagnetic intervals possible day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal
27 May Normal Normal Normal
28 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support for the next 24 hours.
Conditions may decline to fair local night mainly at low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
27 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
28 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions to 30% observed local night Equatorial/N
Aus and S Aus regions as solar 10.7cm flux declines. Mild to
moderate spread-F conditions observed SE Aus area local night.
Expect similar conditions next few days. Possible minor disturbances
Antarctic region day one. There is the slight chance for short-wave
fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 75100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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