[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 14 issued 2347 UT on 24 May 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 25 09:47:09 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1836UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 118/70 115/66
COMMENT: Solar active region 2065 (S18W59) produced a number
of C1 level flares early in the UT day May 24 and an M1.3 level
event of moderate duration at 1835UT. No CME subsequent to the
M class flare has yet been observed in solar imagery. Solar wind
speed continues a slow decline from the elevated levels of the
past 2 days and is around 400 km/s at the time of report issue.
The IMF Bz component, following a sustained negative excursion
late in the UT day May 23, has settled to mostly neutral +/-
3nT over the past 24 hours. Further C to M class activity is
possible from AR2065 over the next few days as it rotates towards
the W solar limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11101100
Cocos Island 2 21111000
Darwin 2 21101101
Townsville 4 22201111
Learmonth 3 12202100
Alice Springs 2 11201101
Norfolk Island 1 11101000
Culgoora 3 1120----
Gingin 3 12202110
Camden 1 11101100
Canberra 2 111010--
Launceston 4 2210----
Hobart 1 11101100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island 2 11102200
Casey 7 33212211
Mawson 12 33321224
Davis 7 2-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 19 4310 1445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 5 Quiet
26 May 7 Quiet. Chance unsettled periods.
27 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters declined towards nominal levels
following the disturbances of the past 2 days. The regional geomagnetic
field was unsettled at high latitudes early in the UT day declining
to generally Quiet. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days. Some
IPS magnetometer data for 24 May has been interrupted due to
technical issues.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support for the next 24 hours.
There is the slight chance for short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Minor variable enhancements depressions over the UT day.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
27 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal
over the last 24 hours. Variable depressions to 30% observed
local night Equatorial/N Aus and S Aus regions. Expect similar
conditions next few days with ionospheric support strengthening
due to increased solar 10.7cm irradiance. There is the slight
chance for short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.4E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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