[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 May 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 24 09:30:26 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 May             25 May             26 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with only two minor 
C-class flares occurring over the previous 24 hours. AR2071(S12E35), 
the largest and most complex(beta-gamma/Dai) on the solar disk, 
showed some regrowth overnight but has been quiet over the period. 
All other regions are either stable or declining. Solar activity 
is expected to be Low for the next 3 days with a chance of an 
M-class flare. No geoeffective CMEs were observed during 23 May 
in the available SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. The solar 
wind speed was steady ~350 km/s then jumped to ~500 km/s at 0330UT. 
The Bz component of IMF turned northwards early UT day, continued 
north until ~1400UT then briefly turned southwards(up to -12nT). 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly elevated 
next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 23 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22201434
      Cocos Island         9   22101334
      Darwin              10   22201334
      Townsville          12   32201434
      Learmonth           19   32201545
      Alice Springs       11   22201434
      Norfolk Island       8   32100333
      Culgoora            11   22201434
      Gingin              18   32101545
      Camden              11   22201434
      Canberra            10   21101434
      Launceston          14   32201444
      Hobart              13   22201444    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
      Macquarie Island     9   11100443
      Casey               18   43300435
      Mawson              48   64420467
      Davis               39   54420665

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2111 2433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 May    12    Quiet to Unsettled
25 May     7    Quiet
26 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased to Active levels at mid 
and low latitudes late in the UT day of 23 May and up to Storm 
levels at polar latitudes. This was due to enhanced merging with 
the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) as it's north-south (Bz) 
component stayed southward (-10nT) for 07 hours from ~14UT. The 
IMF Bz returned to the usual +/-5nT range ~21UT so the geomagnetic 
field should return to Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions over 
24 May. No apparent Coronal Mass Ejections are inbound.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support for the next 24 hours. 
There is the slight chance for short-wave fadeouts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 May    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      115
May      91
Jun      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 May    95    Near predicted monthly values
25 May    95    Near predicted monthly values
26 May    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal 
over the last 24 hours. MUFs were generally near predicted monthly 
values at most locations. Expect similar conditions next few 
days with ionospheric support strengthening due to increased 
solar 10.7cm irradiance. There is the slight chance for short-wave 
fadeouts over the forecast period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    8.2 p/cc  Temp:    60700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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