[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 13 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 14 09:30:08 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: Low
Flares: C class flares.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with very weak C-class solar
flares. However, a strong GOES 15 C-class X-ray flare is in progress
at the time of this report. It reached the C6.8 level at about
22:24 UT. GONG Big Bear H alpha observations show an H alpha
flare in association with AR 2056 which is located in a geoeffective
position. Culgoora radio spectrograph observations did not record
a Type II event. SOHO LASCO observations may reveal evidence
for an ejection associated with this event later in the day.
An equatorial coronal hole has entered the western hemisphere
and a Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CHHSS) may impact Earth
on 15 May. The solar wind speed arriving at Earth steadily declined
during the previous 24 hours and is presently less than 350 km/s.
The magnitude of the IMF has been very weak, mostly less than
2 nT, with Bz confined within -1 nT and +1 nT for much of the
day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 10110001
Darwin 3 11210112
Townsville 2 11110012
Learmonth 1 11110001
Alice Springs 1 10100001
Norfolk Island 2 -3000001
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 0 01100000
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 2 11111001
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 13220000
Mawson 7 23321112
Davis 6 13321110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2322 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 5 Quiet
15 May 12 Unsettled
16 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 13 May and
they are expected to remain quiet during 14 May. A Coronal Hole
High Speed Stream (CHHSS) is expected to impact Earth on 15 May
and lead to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagations conditions were depressed at Darwin
and Townsville, especially during the night. Strong frequency
spread occurred in Hobart ionograms last night and early this
morning.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 73000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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