[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 14 issued 0003 UT on 13 May 2014

Tue May 13 10:03:42 EST 2014

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Low

Flares: C class solar flares.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 163/117

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity was low with weak C-class solar flares 
during the previous 24 hours. A prominent CME was observed leaving 
the Sun in the SSE direction during 11 UT and it will not be 
geoeffective. A group of Active Regions (AR 2055, 2056, 2057, 
2059) located in the Northern Hemisphere is rotating through 
the geoeffective location. The 3-day outlook is for more C class 
flares with is a fair chance of an M class flare. AR 2060 is 
located in the Southern Hemisphere and will pass into the geoeffective 
location shortly after the Northern Hemisphere group leaves it. 
During 12 May, the solar wind speed declined to beneath 400 km/s 
after being slightly enhanced due to the arrival of a weak Coronal 
Hole High Speed Stream (CHHSS). An equatorial coronal hole is 
presently traversing the central meridian and further CHHSS enhancements 
are likely during the next 48 hours. The IMF Bz component fluctuated 
mostly in the range -4 nT to +4 nT during the previous 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12221111
      Cocos Island         3   12211110
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           7   23231111
      Learmonth            5   22221111
      Alice Springs        4   22220101
      Norfolk Island       4   12230011
      Culgoora             5   12231111
      Gingin               5   22221121
      Camden               5   12231111
      Canberra             2   12120000
      Launceston           5   12231111
      Hobart               5   12231111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
      Macquarie Island     6   11242101
      Casey                6   23221111
      Mawson              29   34442165
      Davis               10   23332132

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   4413 1223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May     7    Quiet
14 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
15 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 12 May and 
they are expected to remain quiet during 13 May. However, further 
Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CHHSS) effects are likely during 
the next 48 hours and a large group of solar Active Regions is 
passing through the geoeffective location. Solar rotation charts 
of reoccurring geomagnetic activity suggest unsettled to active 
geomagnetic conditions before the end of the current calendar week.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 May    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      115
May      91
Jun      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 May   100    Near predicted monthly values
15 May    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The F10.7 cm solar radio flux and ionospheric T indices 
have been trending upwards during the previous 10 days. foF2 
values were enhanced at dawn this morning. This often indicates 
that ionospheric propagation support will be enhanced for the 
remainder of the day.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    86500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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