[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 14 issued 2345 UT on 11 May 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 12 09:45:31 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 164/118


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with numerous C class flares 
from several active regions, the greatest being a C6 at 0443UT 
from Region 2058 (S11E30). Expect solar activity to remain Low 
with the chance for M-class events over the forecast period. 
No geoeffective CMEs were observed during 11 May in the available 
SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. Solar wind speeds gradually 
increased from ~ 340 km/s to 440 km/s between 00-05UT and Bz 
ranged between +/-8nT with sustained southward periods. ACE satellite 
data is suggestive that this is due coronal hole high speed stream. 
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain at this levels for the 
next 24 hours under the influence of the high speed stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32131122
      Cocos Island         6   32221111
      Darwin               9   33231122
      Townsville           8   32231122
      Learmonth            9   33231222
      Alice Springs        7   32231121
      Norfolk Island       5   22131011
      Culgoora             7   32131121
      Gingin               9   32231132
      Camden               8   33131122
      Canberra             4   22030011
      Launceston          10   33141222
      Hobart               8   32140122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
      Macquarie Island    14   22162112
      Casey               15   44431222
      Mawson              34   65332164
      Davis               27   53432164

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8   2311 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May    12    Quiet to Unsettled
13 May     7    Quiet
14 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled during the 
UT day, 11 May. Expect activity to remain Quiet to Unsettled 
with possible active periods under the influence of high speed 
stream day 1, 12 May. Geomagnetic activity should return to mostly 
Quiet on the following two days in the absence of prolonged IMF 
Bz southwards or CMEs.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 May    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      115
May      91
Jun      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
13 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
14 May    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs remain near monthly predicted values during the 
local daytime hours with slight to moderate depressions noted 
during the local night time hours. Expect this trend to continue 
for the next 24 hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    61400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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