[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 11 09:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 10 May, with
minor flaring from active regions 2052, 2055, 2056, 2057, and
2058. Expect solar activity to remain Low with a slight chance
for an M-class flare from active region 2058. Partial halo CME
was noted on LASCO C2 and C3 imagery starting at 0436UT. This
CME is not expected to be geo-effective as activity occurred
around the west limb. The solar wind speed ranged between 400
to 350 km/s over the last 24 hours and interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component ranged between +6/-7nT. Expect these conditions
to prevail over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22210021
Cocos Island 3 22110021
Darwin 5 32210021
Townsville 5 22220022
Learmonth 5 22220022
Alice Springs 3 22110020
Norfolk Island 4 32210011
Culgoora 3 22210011
Gingin 4 22210022
Camden 3 22210011
Canberra 2 12110010
Launceston 4 22210021
Hobart 3 12210021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 2 11100012
Casey 8 33320022
Mawson 34 35321175
Davis 18 23331055
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 4231 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 4 Quiet
12 May 4 Quiet
13 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Mostly Quiet during the UT
day, 10 May. Expect activity to remain mostly Quiet over the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
13 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 80 Depressed 5 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 May 80 Depressed 5 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 May 80 Depressed 5 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remain near monthly predicted values during the
local daytime hours with slight to moderate depressions noted
during the local night time hours. Expect this trend to continue
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 84300 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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