[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 10 09:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 09 May, with
minor flaring from active regions 2055, 2056, and 2058. Expect
solar activity to remain Low with a slight chance for an M-class
flare from active region 2058. Partial halo CME was noted on
LASCO C2 and C3 imagery starting at 0248UT. This CME was associated
with Type II/IV sweeps, however is not expected to be geo-effective
as activity occurred around the west limb. The solar wind speed
ranged between 350 and 400 km/s over the last 24 hours and interplanetary
magnetic field Bz component ranged between +/-6nT. Expect these
conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22310000
Cocos Island 3 22210000
Darwin 4 22320001
Townsville 4 22310001
Learmonth 4 22310000
Alice Springs 3 12310000
Norfolk Island 3 22210001
Culgoora 4 22310001
Gingin 3 22210000
Camden 5 221-----
Canberra 1 11200000
Launceston 4 22310001
Hobart 4 22310000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 4 32300000
Casey 5 33220010
Mawson 8 43321001
Davis 6 33321000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20 2335 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 6 Quiet
11 May 6 Quiet
12 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Quiet during the
UT day, 09 May. Expect activity to remain mostly Quiet over the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 80 Depressed 5 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 May 80 Depressed 5 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 May 80 Depressed 5 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remain near monthly predicted values during the
local daytime hours with slight to moderate depressions noted
during the local night time hours. Expect this trend to continue
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 51100 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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