[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 14 issued 2343 UT on 08 May 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 9 09:43:58 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.3 1007UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity has been High, region 2056((N04E44) produced
an M5.2 flare at 1007 UT today. This region increased in area
and magnetic complexity, further M class flare activity is possible
over the next few days from this region. A faint CME was observed
in association with the M5 flare in the available SOHO and STEREO
satellite imagery. Further images are required to determine its
trajectory. The solar wind speed has remained around 380km/s
or slightly below over the last 24. Interplanetary Magnetic field
(IMF) north-south component Bz continued it's extended southward
excursion -5 to -12nT until 07UT, briefly turned northwards and
then southwards again, all conducive to string merging with the
geomagnetic field and energy transfer to it. The effects of a
a recurrent coronal hole are likely to result in an increased
solar wind late today, 09 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 15 23352322
Cocos Island 8 12332222
Darwin 12 23342322
Townsville 16 23452322
Learmonth 15 23342423
Alice Springs 15 23352322
Norfolk Island 13 22352222
Culgoora 11 234-2222
Gingin 14 22252323
Camden 12 234-2322
Canberra 12 12352212
Launceston 12 134-2323
Hobart 11 134-2322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 34 13574422
Casey 9 23232222
Mawson 24 24443435
Davis 11 23333321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1001 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 12 Unsettled
10 May 12 Unsettled
11 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Unsettled to Storm levels in
the first half of the day , tending to Quiet in the later part
of the UT day. Unsettled with possible Active conditions may
accompany the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream late
today,09 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible short-wave fadeouts for the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 May 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions observed during local day and
night due to increased ionising EUV/X-ray enhanced by numerous
active regions on the disc. Region 2056 represent a high probability
of M class flares and moderate short-wave fadeouts (SWFs). Expect
these conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours. Possible
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions 10-11 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 27100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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