[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 14 issued 2341 UT on 07 May 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 8 09:41:21 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 06/2211UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.2    1630UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 146/100


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 07 May, 
with an M1 flare from active region 2051 at 1629UT, which is 
now beyond the west limb. C-class flares also occurred during 
the period from this region. Expect Low solar activity over the 
next three days with the small chance of M-class flare activity. 
No geoeffective CMEs were observed during 07 May in the available 
SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. The solar wind ranged between 
380 and 340 km/s over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain 
in this range over the next 24 hours. Wind speed has increased 
from ~340 to 380 km/s ~2200UT. Density indicates the arrival 
of 03 May predicted CME. Solar wind parameters are expected to 
become mildly disturbed on 09-10 May with the arrival of a recurrent 
coronal hole high-speed stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01002002
      Cocos Island         1   -1110001
      Darwin               2   11102002
      Townsville           3   11102012
      Learmonth            2   00112002
      Alice Springs        1   00002002
      Norfolk Island       1   01002001
      Culgoora             2   01002002
      Gingin               1   00001002
      Camden               2   0-002002
      Canberra             1   00002001
      Launceston           2   01002002
      Hobart               1   00002001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00011001
      Casey                3   12102012
      Mawson              10   21111135
      Davis                5   11211113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1211 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May     7    Mostly Quiet.
09 May    12    Quiet to Unsettled
10 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels during the 
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected on 08 May. 
An increase in geomagnetic activity is expected during May 09-10 
with the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: .

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 May    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      115
May      91
Jun      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
09 May    70    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 May    70    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The MUFs are near long-term predicted monthly values 
with some nighttime depressions observed in the Australian region. 
Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three days. 
Possible disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions 
09-10 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    50600 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list