[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 7 09:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0906UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 2211UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 06 May,
with two M-class flares from active region 2051, which is rotating
around the west limb. M-class flares occurred at 06/0903UT and
06/2209UT. Expect Low solar activity over the next three days.
A partial halo CME observed on 03 May predicted to be geo-effective
has not eventuated yet. The solar wind ranged between 400 and
340 km/s over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain in
this range over the next 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was mostly northward ranging between +5/-2 nT
over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 3 1210----
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 2 1110----
Learmonth 1 01210000
Alice Springs 1 0200----
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 1 1-100001
Gingin 1 0110----
Camden 1 11100000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11100000
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 0 0000----
Casey 9 2330----
Mawson 5 1221----
Davis 3 12310000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 1332 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 May 6 Quiet
09 May 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled
for the next 24 hours with a possibility of isolated periods
of Active levels in southern Australia and the Antarctic region
if 03 May CME arrives at Earth, otherwise expect mostly Quiet
conditions over the next three days. Note some stations are experiencing
delays in reporting data due to equipment problems with server.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 80 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 May 80 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 May 80 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The MUFs are near long-term predicted monthly values
with some nighttime depressions observed in the Australian region.
Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three days.
Expect possible disturbed ionospheric support in Antarctic regions
during the UT day 07 May due to expected geomagnetic activity
from CME arrival at Earth.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 45300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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