[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 14 issued 2345 UT on 05 May 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 6 09:45:47 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a 
few C-class flares. Region 2051(S09W64 ), the most magnetically 
complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta/Dac) on the visible is declining. Low 
levels of solar activity with a chance of M-flares is expected 
over the next three days. A partial halo CME, first observed 
in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 00:12 UT. STEREO imagery indicates 
the CME is not expected to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed 
varied between ~350km/s to ~400 km/s over the UT day today and 
the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5nT during this time. 
A glancing blow from a CME is expected to increase the solar 
wind parameters day two,07 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   13222221
      Cocos Island         5   12121221
      Darwin               7   23221222
      Townsville           7   23222221
      Learmonth            9   23222232
      Alice Springs        6   13221221
      Norfolk Island       5   12221211
      Culgoora             5   12222-21
      Gingin               8   12222331
      Camden               7   13222221
      Canberra             5   02222221
      Launceston           8   13222321
      Hobart               7   12222321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
      Macquarie Island     7   02322321
      Casey                8   24212121
      Mawson              22   34321363
      Davis                8   23311231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16   3443 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 May    15    Unsettled to Active
08 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately 
Quiet to Unsettled for the next 24 hours. Possible active periods 
day 2 with the arrival of the May 3 CME.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: .

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 May    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      115
May      91
Jun      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    90    Near predicted monthly values
07 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
08 May    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Some nighttime depressions were observed in Northern 
AUS regions with the daily T index close to long-term predicted 
monthly average but below recent weeks levels. MUF's are expected 
to be near monthly predicted values for the next 3 days. Possible 
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions 07-08 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:    48600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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