[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 14 issued 2335 UT on 04 May 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 5 09:35:41 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with C-class flares from
active regions 2049, 2051 and 2053, the greatest being a C9 from
AR2051 at 1231UT. AR2049 is the active region most likely to
produce M flares, although it is declining, and is now approaching
the most geoeffective longitude if it produces a CME. AR2051
was growing but now appears to have stabilised. Solar wind speed
was in the light-moderate 340-360 km/s range and should continue
in this range 5th May. Interplanetary Magnetic field (IMF) north-south
component Bz continued it's extended southward excursion -5 to
-10nT until 07UT, briefly turned northwards and then southwards
again 10-14UT, all conducive to string merging with the geomagnetic
field and energy transfer to it.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 8 23332111
Cocos Island 6 23222101
Darwin 8 23332111
Townsville 9 23332112
Learmonth 8 23332110
Alice Springs 8 23332111
Norfolk Island 9 24332101
Culgoora 8 13332111
Gingin 7 23322111
Camden 8 23332111
Canberra 7 13332110
Launceston 7 23-32111
Hobart 9 13432111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 16 24543110
Casey 5 22212111
Mawson 35 56633314
Davis 10 33233211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 0000 0233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 7 Quiet
06 May 7 Quiet
07 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions at mid and low latitudes were Unsettled
in the first half of the UT day, tending to Quiet in the second
half. Polar conditions were Active to Storm levels in the first
half of the day. These conditions were due to the prolonged southwards
excursion of the Interplanetary Magnetic field (see Solar) causing
merging with the geomagnetic field. The field should return to
mostly Quiet conditions on the following two days in the absence
of prolonged IMF Bz southwards or CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some nighttime depressions were observed in Northern
AUS regions with the daily T index close to long-term predicted
monthly average but below recent weeks levels. Geomagnetic activity
early in UT day may account for some of this. As the geomagnetic
activity was more concentrated in polar regions there was strong
spread-F observed at some Southern Aus stations such as Hobart.
Conditions returning to Quiet late in the UT day and expecting
to continue so the ionosphere will recover to near or slightly
above predicted monthly medians over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 20600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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