[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 May 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 15 09:30:16 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Low

Flares: C class fares.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 163/117


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114

COMMENT: Eight C-class solar X-ray flares occurred during the 
previous 24 hours. Newly formed Active Region (AR) 2063 produced 
4 weak C class flares. This region has the potential for further 
significant activity. The largest event of 14 May was a C8.3 
flare peaking at 15:04 UT in association with AR 2056. This is 
the same region responsible for the C6.8 event at 22:24 UT on 
13 May. No CME was detected by the SOHO LASCO coronograph in 
association with the C6.8 event. A partial halo CME was detected 
leaving the NW limb starting at 05 UT on 14 May. This CME was 
not associated with a flare or a Disappearing Solar Filament 
(DSF) on the visible disk. It was likely a far side event. A 
second strong CME was recorded leaving the East limb at 07 UT 
and may be a signature of the DSF observed by the GONG Udaipur 
H-alpha telescope during 05 to 07 UT. A Coronal Hole High Speed 
Stream (CHHSS) is expected to impact Earth in the next 24 hours. 
The solar wind speed is presently near 350 km/s. The magnitude 
of the IMF gradually increased to about 6 nT throughout the day, 
and the Bz component has been fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001000
      Cocos Island         1   11111000
      Darwin               3   21101102
      Townsville           3   21101111
      Learmonth            2   21101100
      Alice Springs        1   11101001
      Norfolk Island       1   11001000
      Culgoora             1   11001101
      Gingin               1   11001000
      Camden               1   11001000
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Launceston           2   21002100
      Hobart               1   11001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00002000
      Casey                4   23201101
      Mawson               8   21001125
      Davis                3   11101122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May : 
      Darwin              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
16 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 14 May. A Coronal 
Hole High Speed Stream (CHHSS) is expected to arrive today and 
lead to unsettled geomagnetic conditions. There are presently 
no Earthward directed CMEs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 May    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      115
May      91
Jun      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May    95    Near predicted monthly values
16 May    95    Near predicted monthly values
17 May    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagations conditions were enhanced by 10-50% during 
02-13 UT at Cocos Island. They were also enhanced by 10-50% during 
03-07 UT and 12-20 UT at Darwin. HF conditions were near predicted 
monthly values at most East Australia stations, but depressed 
by 10-40% during 11-22 UT at Perth and Learmonth.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 353 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    23500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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