[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 14 issued 2341 UT on 01 May 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 2 09:41:48 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
a few B-class flares. Currently five active regions on the disc
and AR2049 (S07E29), is the largest (300 mils) but has been quiet
over the period. All regions appear relatively stable. Low levels
of solar activity with a slight chance of isolated M-flare may
be expected over the next three days. Early in the UT day on
01 May GONG H-alpha showed a disappearing solar filament in the
southeast quadrant. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 01
May. The solar wind speed gradually increased from ~350km/s to
~~400 km/s over the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF varied
between +10nT and -5nT during this time. Light (~ 400km/s) solar
wind speeds are expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 2 12101010
Cocos Island 2 12111000
Darwin 3 12201011
Townsville 3 12201011
Learmonth 3 22201010
Alice Springs 2 12201010
Norfolk Island 2 12101010
Culgoora 2 12101010
Gingin 3 22200010
Camden 2 12101010
Canberra 2 12100010
Launceston 2 12101110
Hobart 2 12101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
Macquarie Island 1 12100000
Casey 9 24422100
Mawson 7 23312121
Davis 7 23321021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20 3434 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 5 Quiet
03 May 5 Quiet
04 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next 3 days
in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Nighttime depressions observed over the region for 01
May UT day, however the T-index is only slightly below long term
monthly predicted value. Return to normal conditions may be expected
over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 18400 K Bz: -8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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