[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 14 issued 2332 UT on 02 May 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 3 09:32:04 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with several
C-class flares mainly from AR2047(S18W13). ARs 2049(S07E15) and
2047(now beta-gamma), showed growth overnight while other regions
are either declining or stable. Low levels of solar activity
with a chance of M-class flares are expected over the next three
days. AR2047 is expected to contribute significantly to the flare
count. Two CMEs, first observed ~0536 and 1000 UT; neither appear
Earth directed. Solar wind speeds remained relatively light during
02-May and are expected to remain around these levels for the
next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11101000
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 1 10101001
Townsville 2 11111001
Learmonth 1 11101000
Alice Springs 1 00101001
Norfolk Island 1 11100001
Culgoora 1 11101000
Gingin 0 01000000
Camden 1 11101000
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 1 11100000
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 23200000
Mawson 3 23110000
Davis 2 12210000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2311 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 5 Quiet
04 May 5 Quiet
05 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and expected to remain
so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for the next 24 hours. There
is the small chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some depressed periods during local night for all Equatorial,
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Some night spread F
at Hobart. Mostly normal HF conditions for the forecast period.
There is the small chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 62500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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