[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 30 10:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/--    1748UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 143/97


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was high, with 
an X1 flare from region 2017 (N11W32) at 29/1748UT. This region 
also produced an M2 flare at 28/2351 and several C-class flares. 
Regions 2010, 2023 and 2024 also produced C-class flares. Several 
CMEs were observed on 29-Mar, though none appears to be Earth-directed 
based on available imagery. The CME from 28/1652 could give Earth 
a glancing blow on 1-Apr. Moderate to high activity is likely 
for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed varied between 370-490km/s 
and the IMF Bz component between +/-6nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22121003
      Cocos Island         2   21111001
      Darwin               3   21110003
      Townsville           4   22111003
      Learmonth            4   22111003
      Alice Springs        3   21110003
      Norfolk Island       4   23010002
      Culgoora             4   21121003
      Gingin               3   21021002
      Camden               5   22121003
      Canberra             3   22020002
      Launceston           5   22121003
      Hobart               3   22120002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   11020001
      Casey                9   33331003
      Mawson              15   55221002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   0002 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar     5    Quiet
31 Mar     5    Quiet
01 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24 hours 
over the Australian region, with unsettled to minor storm conditions 
in Antarctica in the first half of the UT day. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected for the Australian region for 30-31 Mar, with unsettled 
to active conditions possible on 1-Apr if a CME from 28-Mar arrives.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Mar   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      79
Apr      79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar   140    About 25% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar   140    About 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr   140    About 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 29 
March and is current for 30 Mar to 1 Apr. HF conditions were 
mostly normal in the Australian region over the last 24 hours, 
with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.9E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    90100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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