[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 31 10:30:26 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M2 flare from region 2017 (N08W43) and C-class flares
from regions 2014, 2023 and 2026. Regions 2021 and 2025 are growing.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 30-Apr. Solar activity
is expected to be moderate for the next 3 days, with a chance
of X-class flares. The solar wind speed remained above 400km/s
for most of the UT day. The IMF BZ component has been mostly
neutral. The effects of an equatorial coronal hole are likely
to result in an increased solar wind from late on 31-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Cocos Island 1 11100011
Darwin 2 21100011
Townsville 3 21211011
Learmonth 3 21210011
Alice Springs 2 11200011
Norfolk Island 2 20100012
Culgoora 2 1111-011
Gingin 3 21110021
Camden 2 21110011
Canberra 2 11110011
Launceston 4 22210121
Hobart 3 22210011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 10020010
Casey 5 32210021
Mawson 13 43230242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 3201 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during the last 24
hours in the Australian region, with brief unsettled to active
periods in Antarctica. An equatorial coronal hole is likely to
lead to unsettled conditions from late on 31-Mar. CME effects
are expected to commence from late on 1-Apr, with periods of
unsettled to possibly active conditions in the Australian region,
with storm levels reached in Antarctica.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions at high latitudes
are possible on 1-Apr and likely on 2-Apr due to increased geomagnetic
activity from coronal hole and CME effects, respectively.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 145 About 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr 130 About 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 29
March and is current for 30 Mar to 1 Apr. HF conditions were
mostly normal in the Australian region over the last 24 hours,
with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar conditions are expected
for the next three days, with depressions at high latitudes possible
on 1-Apr and likely on 2-Apr due to an expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 69900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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