[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 29 10:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.0    1919UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 146/100


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was moderate, 
with an M2 flare from region 2017 (N10W20) at 28/1918UT. This 
was accompanied by a type II radio sweep and a CME. Although 
the available imagery is currently limited, this CME appears 
to be directed above the ecliptic plane. An earlier CME, first 
observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1652UT, is also directed away 
from Earth. Solar activity over the next 3 days is expected to 
be low to moderate. Over the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed 
varied between 380-490km/s, and the IMF BZ component between 
+/-6nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21113022
      Cocos Island         4   12112021
      Darwin               5   21113012
      Townsville           6   21123022
      Learmonth            7   21124022
      Alice Springs        4   20113021
      Norfolk Island       4   11112022
      Culgoora             6   11--3122
      Gingin               7   21113132
      Camden               4   11113021
      Canberra             4   11113021
      Launceston           6   21123122
      Hobart               5   11113022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     5   00014021
      Casey               11   34322122
      Mawson              14   22223253

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           14   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1113 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar     7    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Mar     7    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the 
Australian region over the last 24 hours, with a brief unsettled 
to active period after 12UT. Quiet to unsettled conditions are 
expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Mar   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      79
Apr      79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar   140    About 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar   140    About 25% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar   140    About 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Australian region 
over the last 24 hours, with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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