[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 26 10:30:23 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
minor C-class flares from regions 2010 (S14W39) and 2015 (S12W67). 
A CME first observed at 25/0536 in LASCO C2 imagery does not 
appear to be Earth-directed. Solar activity is likely to remain 
low for the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicated an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 25/0725UT. This was a precursor 
to the arrival of the 23-Mar CME at ACE after 19UT, when the 
solar wind speed stepped up to ~500km/s from being below 400km/s 
for most of 24-Mar. The IMF Bz component had remained in the 
range +/-5nT (mostly positive) until the shock, whereafter it 
has fluctuated between +/-10nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11121133
      Cocos Island         6   -1111133
      Darwin               6   11121133
      Townsville           7   11122133
      Learmonth            6   11121133
      Alice Springs        5   10121033
      Norfolk Island       4   10021032
      Culgoora             6   -1121--3
      Gingin               6   11121133
      Camden               5   10021033
      Canberra             4   10021023
      Launceston           6   11121133
      Hobart               4   01121023    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   00011022
      Casey               14   23231253
      Mawson              13   31121154

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2001 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar    15    Quiet to unsettled, with active to minor storm 
                levels at high latitudes
27 Mar     5    Quiet
28 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 24 March and 
is current for 26 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly 
quiet for much of the UT day, until 25/2004UT, when a weak (14nT) 
impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data consistent 
with the arrival of the 23-Mar CME. Since then there have been 
unsettled conditions across much of the Australian region, with 
active to storm levels reached in Antarctica. These conditions 
will likely continue for some time during 26-Mar, before quiet 
conditions resume later in the UT day. Quiet conditions are also 
expected for 27-28 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some degraded HF conditions are likely at high latitudes 
on 26-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      121
Mar      79
Apr      79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values
27 Mar   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Mar   130    About 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Australian region 
over the last 24 hours, with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next three days, with some degraded 
periods at high latitudes during 26-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 436 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    88300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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