[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 27 10:30:23 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
minor C-class flares from regions 2010 (S16W45) and 2014 (S14W07).
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity is likely
to remain low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined
to below 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component varied mostly between
+/-5nT, with a positive bias.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Unsettled to
active early, then quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 31320011
Cocos Island 5 31310021
Darwin 7 32321112
Townsville 7 31331111
Learmonth 9 42321022
Alice Springs 6 32320012
Norfolk Island 5 31320011
Culgoora 3 ---21111
Gingin 7 41320020
Camden 5 31320011
Canberra 5 31320011
Launceston 6 31321011
Hobart 5 31320011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 21210001
Casey 13 44431021
Mawson 22 63531131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 0002 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 5 Quiet
28 Mar 5 Quiet
29 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active early
in the UT day due to the effects of the 23-Mar CME, before later
abating to quiet levels. Some active and storm level periods
were observed in the Antarctic region before 09UT. Conditions
in the Australian region are expected to be quiet for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
28 Mar 140 About 25% below predicted monthly values
29 Mar 140 About 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal in the Australian region
over the last 24 hours, with enhanced MUFs in most areas. Similar
conditions are expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 44700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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