[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 21 10:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0356UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. Several
C-class and one M1.7 flares were observed today. The M1.7 flare
was produced by region 2010 (S15E25) and it peaked at 0356 UT.
The flare was associated with a Type II radio burst. Another
relatively larger event of the day was a C8.3 (0157 UT) from
region 2014. The flare was associated to a non-earthward directed
CME. Solar wind speed stayed between 300 and 350 km/s and the
Bz component of IMF varied mostly between +/-5nT during the UT
day today. The solar wind stream may get some strength on the
third day as a coronal hole is expected to take a geoeffective
position around that time. Solar activity is expected to stay
at low levels with a small chance of M-class activity for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12122011
Cocos Island 3 12121010
Darwin 4 12122111
Townsville 5 12122112
Learmonth 5 22122111
Alice Springs 4 12122012
Norfolk Island 4 12122011
Culgoora 4 12122011
Gingin 4 21121022
Camden 4 12122011
Canberra 3 12122001
Launceston 5 12132111
Hobart 3 12122001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 01021000
Casey 11 34431011
Mawson 9 23221024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1011 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 2 Quiet
22 Mar 2 Quiet
23 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next two days. Activity
levels may rise to unsettled levels on the third day (23 March)
as a high speed solar wind stream is expected to affect the geomagnetic
fields around that time.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs remained enhanced in most locations on 20 March.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next two
days with some possibility of minor degradation in conditions,
especially at high and some mid latitude locations, on 23 March
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this
day. SWFs may be observed during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for
20 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly
values for the next two days. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected in the Aus/NZ region for the next three days with
some possibility of minor degradations on 23 March due to a possible
rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this day. There is small
chance of SWFs everyday for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 50100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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