[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 14 issued 2332 UT on 21 Mar 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 22 10:32:51 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 21 March,
with only low level C-class flares from 3 active regions. Solar
activity is expected to be mostly Low with a chance of M-class
flares for the next few days. No geoeffective CME activity was
observed in available LASCO/STEREO images during 21 March. Solar
wind speeds remained light during 21 March and Bz ranged between
+/-5nT with sustained southward periods. Light solar wind speeds
are expected for the next 2 days. A coronal hole high speed stream
may mildly elevate solar wind speeds day 3, 24 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 21132311
Cocos Island 5 21122220
Darwin 7 32122311
Townsville 9 32133311
Learmonth 10 32223322
Alice Springs 7 31132310
Norfolk Island 6 21132211
Culgoora 7 21132311
Gingin 8 31222312
Camden 7 22132311
Canberra 7 21132311
Launceston 9 22242311
Hobart 7 21232311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 21254310
Casey 9 42222212
Mawson 16 34422324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1212 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 7 Quiet
23 Mar 7 Quiet
24 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled periods were observed at midlatitude sites
over the day, in response to intervals of southward-directed
IMF Bz. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next two days.
A slight increase in activity is possible day 3, 24 March, due
to a minor increase in the high speed solar wind stream from
a weak coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to continue to be mostly above predicted
monthly values for the next few days with the small chance of
SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for
21 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly
values for the next few days. There is the small chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 38200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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