[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 20 10:30:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over
the last 24 hours. Several C-class flares were observed today,
the largest being a C9.9 flare from region 2010(S15E39). The
C9.9 flare peaked at 0734UT. Two Type II radio bursts, related
to small C-flare activities, were also observed today. However,
no earthward directed CME has been observed during the last 24
hours. Region 2010 has shown growth both in area and complexity.
Some C-flares and isolated M-flare may be expected from this
region. Solar wind speed gradually declined from 340 km/s to
310 km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied mostly between +/-5nT
during the UT day today. There is a small possibility of a weak
glancing blow from the CME (of 16 March) early on 20 March. Solar
activity is expected to stay at low levels with a small chance
of M-class activity for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11201101
Cocos Island 2 12100010
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 2 11201101
Learmonth 3 22201100
Alice Springs 2 21101001
Norfolk Island 2 10200011
Culgoora 2 21101101
Gingin 2 21101110
Camden 3 12201101
Canberra 2 11201001
Launceston 4 12212101
Hobart 3 12202101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 11211000
Casey 9 34321012
Mawson 12 33311134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 5 0221 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 4 Quiet
21 Mar 2 Quiet
22 Mar 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels on 19 March.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs remained enhanced in most locations on 19 March.
Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for the next few
days with small chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for
19 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly
values for the next few days. There is small chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 42200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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